source: src/main/java/parties/in4010/q12015/group10/OpponentStrategyEstimator.java@ 1

Last change on this file since 1 was 1, checked in by Wouter Pasman, 7 years ago

Initial import : Genius 9.0.0
File size: 6.8 KB
Line 
1package parties.in4010.q12015.group10;
2
3import static java.lang.Math.pow;
4
5import java.util.Iterator;
6import java.util.List;
7
8import genius.core.Bid;
9import genius.core.Deadline;
10import genius.core.DeadlineType;
11import genius.core.bidding.BidDetails;
12import genius.core.boaframework.OutcomeSpace;
13import genius.core.misc.Range;
14import genius.core.timeline.TimeLineInfo;
15import genius.core.utility.AdditiveUtilitySpace;
16
17public class OpponentStrategyEstimator {
18
19 static double updateAllModels(Opponent[] opponents, Deadline deadLine,
20 TimeLineInfo timeLine, AdditiveUtilitySpace myUtilitySpace) {
21 boolean acceptableQuality = false;
22 if (deadLine.getType() == DeadlineType.TIME) {
23 return 0.0;
24 }
25
26 int maxNumberOfBids = deadLine.getValue();
27 double nextBidNumberDouble = timeLine.getCurrentTime()
28 / timeLine.getTotalTime();
29 int nextBidNumber = ((int) nextBidNumberDouble);
30
31 // generate time array
32 double[] totalTimeArray = new double[maxNumberOfBids];
33 for (int bidNumber = 0; bidNumber < maxNumberOfBids; bidNumber++) {
34 totalTimeArray[bidNumber] = ((double) nextBidNumber)
35 / ((double) maxNumberOfBids);
36 }
37
38 // for each opponent
39 // u = 1+a*t+b*t^c
40 // see report
41 double[] a = new double[opponents.length]; // estimated boulware
42 // parameter
43 double[] b = new double[opponents.length]; // estimated boulware
44 // parameter
45 double[] c = new double[opponents.length]; // estimated boulware
46 // parameter
47 double[] d = new double[opponents.length]; // estimated boulware
48 // parameter
49 double[] errorVariance = new double[opponents.length]; // estimated
50 // variance of
51 // error for the
52 // found fit
53
54 // estimate fitting parameters
55 double minimumPassedTime = 0.75; // this is the minimum time that must
56 // be passed before we consider
57 // getting an estimate
58 double powerIncrement = 0.2;
59 int maxLoops = 100;
60 int spacing = 5;
61 int beginOffset = 1;
62
63 // System.out.println("minimumPassedTimeboolean"+minimumPassedTime);
64 if (timeLine.getTime() > minimumPassedTime) {
65 acceptableQuality = true;
66 }
67
68 for (int opponentNumber = 0; opponentNumber < opponents.length; opponentNumber++) {
69 if (opponents[opponentNumber].getHistorySize() < 10 * spacing) {
70 return 0.0;
71 }
72 }
73
74 if (acceptableQuality) {
75 for (int opponentNumber = 0; opponentNumber < opponents.length; opponentNumber++) {
76 double[] bidEval = new double[opponents[opponentNumber]
77 .getHistorySize()];
78 double[] time = new double[opponents[opponentNumber]
79 .getHistorySize()];
80 // for each bid in the history
81 Bid bid;
82 for (int bidNumber = 0; bidNumber < opponents[opponentNumber]
83 .getHistorySize(); bidNumber++) {
84 bid = opponents[opponentNumber]
85 .getBidfromHistory(bidNumber);
86 try {
87 bidEval[bidNumber] = opponents[opponentNumber]
88 .getEstimatedUtilitySpace().getUtility(bid);
89 } catch (Exception e) {
90 e.printStackTrace();
91 }
92 time[bidNumber] = ((double) bidNumber)
93 / ((double) deadLine.getValue());
94 }
95
96 // begin offset not implemented
97 double[] minTime = boulwareParameterEstimator.getMinTime(
98 bidEval, time, spacing, beginOffset);
99 double[] minBidEval = boulwareParameterEstimator.getMinEval(
100 bidEval, time, spacing, beginOffset);
101
102 double[] parABCE = boulwareParameterEstimator.leastSquaresFit(
103 minBidEval, minTime, maxLoops, powerIncrement);
104
105 a[opponentNumber] = parABCE[0];
106 b[opponentNumber] = parABCE[1];
107 c[opponentNumber] = parABCE[2];
108 d[opponentNumber] = parABCE[3];
109 errorVariance[opponentNumber] = parABCE[4];
110 System.out.println("errorVariance"
111 + errorVariance[opponentNumber]);
112 }
113 }
114
115 // if the minimum variance is higher than the threshold the model is
116 // deemed unusable
117 double modelQualityThreshold = 0.02;
118 for (int n = 0; n < errorVariance.length; n++) {
119 if (errorVariance[n] > modelQualityThreshold) {
120 acceptableQuality = true;
121 }
122 }
123
124 // get the full outcome space
125 Range UtilRange = new Range(0, 1);
126 OutcomeSpace fullOutComeSpace = new OutcomeSpace(myUtilitySpace);
127 List<BidDetails> allPossibleBids = fullOutComeSpace
128 .getBidsinRange(UtilRange);
129 double[] maxUtilityMySpaceOfCommonBids = new double[maxNumberOfBids];
130 // for each opponent:
131 // get the estimated lowerbound on the bidding utility that they will
132 // bid unitl N bids before the deadline
133 double t; // non array time variable
134 int offsetBidsFromDeadLine = 4;
135 double[] lowerBoundOfferedUtility = new double[opponents.length];
136 double totalMaxUtilityMySpaceOfCommonBids = 0;
137 if (acceptableQuality) {
138 // for each future bidnumber
139 for (int bidNumber = nextBidNumber; bidNumber < maxNumberOfBids
140 - offsetBidsFromDeadLine; bidNumber++) {
141 // for each opponent get the lower bound on the expected utility
142 for (int opponentNumber = 1; opponentNumber < opponents.length; opponentNumber++) {
143 t = totalTimeArray[bidNumber];
144 lowerBoundOfferedUtility[opponentNumber] = a[opponentNumber]
145 + b[opponentNumber]
146 * t
147 + c[opponentNumber]
148 * pow(t, d[opponentNumber]);
149 }
150 // ////// check the max attainable common utility
151 maxUtilityMySpaceOfCommonBids[bidNumber] = 0;
152 for (Iterator<BidDetails> BidDetailsIterator = allPossibleBids
153 .iterator(); BidDetailsIterator.hasNext();) {
154 // Iterates over all possible bids
155 BidDetails bidDetails = BidDetailsIterator.next();
156 Bid bid = bidDetails.getBid();
157 boolean bidInCommonBidRange = true;
158 double utilityOfBid;
159 for (int opponentNumber = 1; opponentNumber < opponents.length; opponentNumber++) {
160 utilityOfBid = 0;
161 try {
162 utilityOfBid = opponents[opponentNumber]
163 .getEstimatedUtilitySpace().getUtility(bid);
164 } catch (Exception e1) {
165 e1.printStackTrace();
166 } // Throws Exception when bid is invalid
167 if (utilityOfBid < lowerBoundOfferedUtility[opponentNumber]) {
168 bidInCommonBidRange = false;
169 }
170 }
171 if (bidInCommonBidRange) {
172 utilityOfBid = 0;
173 try {
174 utilityOfBid = myUtilitySpace.getUtility(bid);
175 } catch (Exception e1) {
176 e1.printStackTrace();
177 } // Throws Exception when bid is invalid
178 if (maxUtilityMySpaceOfCommonBids[bidNumber] < utilityOfBid) {
179 maxUtilityMySpaceOfCommonBids[bidNumber] = utilityOfBid;
180 }
181 }
182
183 }
184
185 // //////
186 }
187 for (int bidNumber = nextBidNumber; bidNumber < maxNumberOfBids
188 - offsetBidsFromDeadLine; bidNumber++) {
189 if (totalMaxUtilityMySpaceOfCommonBids < maxUtilityMySpaceOfCommonBids[bidNumber]) {
190 totalMaxUtilityMySpaceOfCommonBids = maxUtilityMySpaceOfCommonBids[bidNumber];
191 }
192 }
193 }
194
195 double uncertaintyBandwidth = 0.05;
196 return totalMaxUtilityMySpaceOfCommonBids - uncertaintyBandwidth;
197
198 }
199}
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