1 | package negotiator.boaframework.offeringstrategy.anac2013;
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2 |
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3 | import java.io.BufferedReader;
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4 | import java.io.File;
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5 | import java.io.FileReader;
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6 | import java.io.IOException;
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7 | import java.util.List;
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8 | import java.util.Map;
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9 |
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10 | import genius.core.bidding.BidDetails;
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11 | import genius.core.boaframework.NegotiationSession;
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12 | import genius.core.boaframework.OMStrategy;
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13 | import genius.core.boaframework.OfferingStrategy;
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14 | import genius.core.boaframework.OpponentModel;
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15 | import genius.core.boaframework.SortedOutcomeSpace;
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16 | import genius.core.misc.Range;
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17 | import negotiator.boaframework.offeringstrategy.anac2013.TheFawkes.Fawkews_Math;
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18 | import negotiator.boaframework.omstrategy.TheFawkes_OMS;
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19 | import negotiator.boaframework.opponentmodel.TheFawkes_OM;
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20 |
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21 | /**
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22 | * Bidding Strategy
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23 | */
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24 | public final class Fawkes_Offering extends OfferingStrategy {
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25 | // Three very important variables -> beta: concession rate formula 7, rho:
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26 | // tolerance threshold formula 1, nu: risk factor formula 7
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27 | private double beta, rho, nu, discountFactor;
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28 | private TheFawkes_OM OM;
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29 | private TheFawkes_OMS OMS;
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30 |
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31 | @Override
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32 | public void init(NegotiationSession nSession, OpponentModel oppModel, OMStrategy omStrategy,
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33 | Map<String, Double> params) throws Exception {
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34 | super.init(nSession, oppModel, omStrategy, params);
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35 | this.OM = (TheFawkes_OM) oppModel;
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36 | this.OMS = (TheFawkes_OMS) omStrategy;
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37 | this.negotiationSession.setOutcomeSpace(new SortedOutcomeSpace(this.negotiationSession.getUtilitySpace()));
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38 |
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39 | // The final parameters resulting from tests:
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40 | this.beta = 0.002;
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41 | this.rho = 0.8;
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42 | this.nu = 0.2;
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43 |
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44 | File biddingParams = new File("g3_biddingparams.txt");
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45 | if (biddingParams.exists() && biddingParams.canRead()) {
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46 | try {
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47 | BufferedReader reader = new BufferedReader(new FileReader(biddingParams));
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48 | this.beta = Double.parseDouble(reader.readLine());
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49 | this.rho = Double.parseDouble(reader.readLine());
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50 | this.nu = Double.parseDouble(reader.readLine());
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51 | reader.close();
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52 | } catch (IOException io) {
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53 | io.printStackTrace();
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54 | }
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55 | }
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56 |
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57 | this.discountFactor = this.negotiationSession.getDiscountFactor();
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58 | this.discountFactor = (this.discountFactor == 0) ? 1 : this.discountFactor; // FIX:
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59 | // use
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60 | // discount
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61 | // factor
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62 | // 1
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63 | // when
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64 | // it
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65 | // is
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66 | // given
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67 | // as
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68 | // 0
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69 | }
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70 |
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71 | @Override
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72 | public BidDetails determineOpeningBid() { // Our opening bid is just the
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73 | // maximum possible bid for us
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74 | BidDetails returned = this.negotiationSession.getMaxBidinDomain();
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75 | returned.setTime(this.negotiationSession.getTime());
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76 | return returned;
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77 | }
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78 |
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79 | @Override
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80 | public BidDetails determineNextBid() {
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81 | BidDetails returned;
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82 | if (this.negotiationSession.getOpponentBidHistory().getHistory().size() > 1) { // If
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83 | // we
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84 | // have
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85 | // anything
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86 | // to
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87 | // base
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88 | // our
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89 | // OM
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90 | // on,
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91 | // use
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92 | // it
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93 | returned = this.responseMechanism(this.getTargetUtility());
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94 | } else { // Otherwise, just do our opening bid
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95 | returned = this.determineOpeningBid();
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96 | }
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97 | returned.setTime(this.negotiationSession.getTime());
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98 | return returned;
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99 | }
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100 |
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101 | private BidDetails responseMechanism(double targetUtility) {
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102 | double timeCorrection = 1 - (this.negotiationSession.getTime() / 10.0); // TODO:
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103 | // do
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104 | // something
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105 | // with
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106 | // discountfactor
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107 | // here
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108 | // too?!
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109 | double inertiaCorrection = this.OMS.getSecondBestCount()
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110 | / (this.negotiationSession.getOwnBidHistory().size() * 10.0); // TODO:
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111 | // this
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112 | // is
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113 | // still
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114 | // not
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115 | // ideal...
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116 | double lowerBound = (timeCorrection - inertiaCorrection) * targetUtility;
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117 | // Group3_Agent.debug( "tCor: " + timeCorrection + ", -iCor: " +
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118 | // inertiaCorrection + ", *targetU: " + targetUtility + ", =lB: " +
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119 | // lowerBound );
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120 | List<BidDetails> possibleBids = this.negotiationSession.getOutcomeSpace()
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121 | .getBidsinRange(new Range(lowerBound, Double.MAX_VALUE));
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122 | if (possibleBids.isEmpty()) { // if no solution is found, the latest
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123 | // offer made by the agent is used again
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124 | // in the subsequent round
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125 | // Group3_Agent.debug( "No solution
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126 | // found, using our own last bid again"
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127 | // );
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128 | return this.negotiationSession.getOwnBidHistory().getLastBidDetails();
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129 | } else {
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130 | // Group3_Agent.debug( "Selecting a bid out of " +
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131 | // possibleBids.size() + " bids (" +
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132 | // this.OM.getMaxOpponentBidTimeDiff() + ")" );
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133 | return this.omStrategy.getBid(possibleBids); // selecting a bid in
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134 | // this range is
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135 | // done in the OMS
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136 | }
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137 | }
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138 |
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139 | /**
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140 | * Obtain the utility of the next bid we are willing to make, based on our
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141 | * concession rate and the OM.
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142 | *
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143 | * @return Target utility
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144 | */
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145 | private double getTargetUtility() {
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146 | // Paper step 4 (formulas 7 and 8) is to calculate the reserved utility
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147 | // function and the estimated received utility
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148 | double currentTime = this.negotiationSession.getTime();
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149 | double maxDiff = Double.MIN_VALUE, minDiff = Double.MAX_VALUE, optimisticEstimatedTime = 0,
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150 | optimisticEstimatedUtility = 0, pessimisticEstimatedTime = 0, pessimisticEstimatedUtility = 0;
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151 | for (double time = currentTime; time < Math.min(currentTime + (this.OM.getMaxOpponentBidTimeDiff() * 10),
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152 | 1); time += this.OM.getMaxOpponentBidTimeDiff()) { // formulas
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153 | // 9, 10,
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154 | // 11, and
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155 | // 13 are
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156 | // all
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157 | // applied
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158 | // in this
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159 | // loop:
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160 | // finding
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161 | // the
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162 | // estimated
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163 | // u and t
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164 | // (Uhat/That).
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165 | // Note that
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166 | // the
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167 | // time-window
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168 | // here is
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169 | // the same
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170 | // as used
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171 | // in the AS
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172 | double reservedUtility = this.reservedUtility(time);
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173 | double discountedReservedUtility = this.discountedUtility(reservedUtility, time);
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174 | double estimatedReceivedUtility = this.estimatedReceivedUtility(time);
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175 | double discountedEstimatedReceivedUtility = this.discountedUtility(estimatedReceivedUtility, time);
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176 | double diff = discountedEstimatedReceivedUtility - discountedReservedUtility;
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177 | // Group3_Agent.debug( "(reservedU,estReceivedU)=(" +
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178 | // reservedUtility + "," + estimatedReceivedUtility + ")" + " @" +
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179 | // time );
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180 | if (discountedEstimatedReceivedUtility >= discountedReservedUtility && diff > maxDiff) { // optimistic
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181 | // result!
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182 | maxDiff = diff; // argmax
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183 | optimisticEstimatedTime = time;
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184 | optimisticEstimatedUtility = estimatedReceivedUtility;
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185 | }
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186 | if (maxDiff == Double.MIN_VALUE) { // once we became optimistic,
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187 | // we'll never be pessimistic
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188 | // this round
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189 | double absoluteDiff = Math.abs(diff);
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190 | if (absoluteDiff < minDiff) {
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191 | minDiff = absoluteDiff; // argmin
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192 | pessimisticEstimatedTime = time;
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193 | pessimisticEstimatedUtility = estimatedReceivedUtility;
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194 | }
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195 | }
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196 | }
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197 |
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198 | double estimatedTime, estimatedUtility;
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199 | if (maxDiff == Double.MIN_VALUE) { // pessimistic result! use formula 12
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200 | double xsi = (Math.pow(this.rho, -1)
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201 | * this.discountedUtility(pessimisticEstimatedUtility, pessimisticEstimatedTime))
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202 | / this.discountedUtility(this.reservedUtility(pessimisticEstimatedTime), pessimisticEstimatedTime);
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203 | if (xsi > 1) { // good pessimist :) use the pessimistic values found
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204 | estimatedTime = pessimisticEstimatedTime;
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205 | estimatedUtility = pessimisticEstimatedUtility;
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206 | } else { // panic... no usuable result even when pessimistic (14-1)
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207 | estimatedTime = -1;
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208 | estimatedUtility = -1;
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209 | }
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210 | // Group3_Agent.debug( "[PESSIMIST] X:" + xsi + "(" + ( Math.pow(
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211 | // this.rho, -1 ) * this.discountedUtility(
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212 | // pessimisticEstimatedUtility, pessimisticEstimatedTime ) )
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213 | // + "/" + this.discountedUtility( this.reservedUtility(
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214 | // pessimisticEstimatedTime ), pessimisticEstimatedTime ) + ")" );
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215 | } else { // optimistic result; use the optimistic values found
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216 | estimatedTime = optimisticEstimatedTime;
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217 | estimatedUtility = optimisticEstimatedUtility;
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218 |
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219 | }
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220 | // Group3_Agent.debug( "T: " + estimatedTime + ", U:" + estimatedUtility
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221 | // );
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222 |
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223 | double targetUtility;
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224 | if (estimatedUtility == -1) { // still no result (formula 14-1)
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225 | targetUtility = this.reservedUtility(currentTime);
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226 | // Group3_Agent.debug( "[RESERVERDU]=" + targetUtility );
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227 | } else { // formula 14-2
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228 | BidDetails myPreviousBid = this.negotiationSession.getOwnBidHistory().getLastBidDetails();
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229 | double myPreviousUtil = myPreviousBid.getMyUndiscountedUtil(); // targetUtility
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230 | // is
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231 | // undiscounted
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232 | // too
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233 | double factor = (currentTime - estimatedTime) / (myPreviousBid.getTime() - estimatedTime);
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234 | targetUtility = estimatedUtility + (myPreviousUtil - estimatedUtility) * factor;
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235 | // Group3_Agent.debug( "[factor,U]=" + factor + "," + targetUtility
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236 | // );
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237 | }
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238 | return targetUtility;
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239 | }
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240 |
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241 | /**
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242 | * Reserved utility function. This function guarantees the minimum utility
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243 | * at each time step. The calculated utility is dependent on the concession
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244 | * rate beta.
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245 | *
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246 | * @param t
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247 | * Normalized time stamp
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248 | * @return Utility value that is at least the lowest discounted utility
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249 | * value at time t. Range: (reservationValue,maxUtility)
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250 | */
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251 | private double reservedUtility(double time) { // formula 7
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252 | double reservationValue = this.negotiationSession.getUtilitySpace().getReservationValueUndiscounted();
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253 | double myBestBidUtility = this.negotiationSession.getMaxBidinDomain().getMyUndiscountedUtil();
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254 | return reservationValue + (1 - Math.pow(time, 1 / this.beta))
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255 | * ((myBestBidUtility * Math.pow(this.discountFactor, this.nu)) - reservationValue);
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256 | }
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257 |
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258 | /**
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259 | * Estimated Received Utility. Expectation of the opponents future
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260 | * concession. Uses the OM to estimate what the opponent will offer at a
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261 | * certain time.
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262 | *
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263 | * @param time
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264 | * Normalized time stamp
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265 | * @return Utility value that the OM has calculated the opponent will offer
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266 | * at time t.
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267 | */
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268 | private double estimatedReceivedUtility(double time) { // formula 8
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269 | int timeIndex = (int) Math.floor(time * this.OM.timeIndexFactor);
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270 | return this.OM.alpha.evaluate(timeIndex) * (1 + Fawkews_Math.getStandardDeviation(this.OM.ratio));
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271 | }
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272 |
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273 | /**
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274 | * The Discounted Utility given a specific time. This is the current utility
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275 | * multiplied by the discount factor to the power of the time.
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276 | *
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277 | * @param utility
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278 | * The undiscounted utility.
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279 | * @param time
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280 | * The time you want the discount for.
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281 | * @return The discounted utility.
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282 | */
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283 | private double discountedUtility(double utility, double time) {
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284 | return utility * Math.pow(this.discountFactor, time);
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285 | }
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286 |
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287 | @Override
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288 | public String getName() {
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289 | return "2013 - Fawkes";
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290 | }
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291 | }
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