1 | package agents.anac.y2011.ValueModelAgent;
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2 |
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3 | import genius.core.Bid;
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4 | import genius.core.issue.Value;
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5 | import genius.core.utility.AdditiveUtilitySpace;
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6 |
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7 | public class ValueModeler {
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8 | public boolean initialized=false;
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9 | AdditiveUtilitySpace utilitySpace;
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10 | IssuesDecreases[] issues;
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11 | //initializing the opponenent model with the opponentFirstBid,
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12 | //which is assumed to be the best bid possible
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13 | public void initialize(AdditiveUtilitySpace space,Bid firstBid) throws Exception{
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14 | initialized=true;
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15 | utilitySpace = space;
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16 | int issueCount = utilitySpace.getDomain().getIssues().size();
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17 | issues = new IssuesDecreases[issueCount];
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18 | for(int i =0; i<issueCount;i++) {
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19 | Value value = firstBid.getValue(utilitySpace.getIssue(i).getNumber());
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20 | issues[i] = new IssuesDecreases(utilitySpace);
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21 | issues[i].initilize(utilitySpace.getDomain().getIssues().get(i), value, issueCount);
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22 | }
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23 | }
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24 | private void normalize(){
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25 |
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26 | for(int i=0;i<issues.length;i++){
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27 | //issues[i].normalize(issues[i].weight()/sumWeight);
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28 | //OK so it dosn't really sum up to 1...
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29 | issues[i].normalize(issues[i].weight());
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30 | }
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31 |
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32 |
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33 | }
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34 | //this function gets a reliability measurement of a value and determines
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35 | //how much units of deviation should this reliability level move
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36 | //for each movement of 100% reliability
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37 | private double reliabilityToDevUnits(double reliability){
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38 | if(reliability>1/2){
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39 | return (1/(reliability*reliability))/issues.length;
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40 | }
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41 | if(reliability>1/4){
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42 | return (2/reliability)/issues.length;
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43 | }
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44 | if(reliability>0){
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45 | return (4/Math.sqrt(reliability))/issues.length;
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46 | }
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47 | //this case shouldn't be reached
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48 | return 1000;
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49 | }
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50 | //the bid utility for the player is assumed to be 1-expectedDecrease
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51 | public void assumeBidWorth(Bid bid,double expectedDecrease,double stdDev) throws Exception{
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52 | ValueDecrease[] values = new ValueDecrease[issues.length];
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53 | double maxReliableDecrease=0;
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54 | for(int i=0;i<issues.length;i++){
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55 | Value value = bid.getValue(utilitySpace.getIssue(i).getNumber());
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56 | values[i] = issues[i].getExpectedDecrease(value);
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57 | }
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58 | //double deviationUnit=stdDev;
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59 | double deviationUnit=0;
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60 | for(int i=0;i<issues.length;i++){
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61 | deviationUnit +=
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62 | reliabilityToDevUnits(values[i].getReliabilty())
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63 | *values[i].getDeviance();
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64 | if(maxReliableDecrease<values[i].getDecrease() && values[i].getReliabilty()>0.8){
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65 | maxReliableDecrease=values[i].getDecrease();
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66 | }
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67 | }
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68 | ValueDecrease origEvaluation=utilityLoss(bid);
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69 | double unitsToMove = (expectedDecrease-origEvaluation.getDecrease())/deviationUnit;
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70 | for(int i=0;i<issues.length;i++){
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71 | double newVal = values[i].getDecrease()+
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72 | reliabilityToDevUnits(values[i].getReliabilty())
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73 | *values[i].getDeviance()
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74 | *unitsToMove;
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75 | if(values[i].getMaxReliabilty()>0.7 || maxReliableDecrease<newVal){
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76 | if(newVal>0){
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77 | values[i].updateWithNewValue(newVal, origEvaluation.getReliabilty());
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78 | }
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79 | else values[i].updateWithNewValue(0, origEvaluation.getReliabilty());
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80 | }
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81 | //assumes that new unreliable values costs more than previously seen values.
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82 | //if our opponent selected a bid that costs 10%,
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83 | //that is split between values that costs 4%,6%.
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84 | //than if 4%->6% we will think that 6%->4%.
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85 | //worst this sway also influences the estimate
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86 | //of our opponent's concession, so we may think he
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87 | //Consented to 7% and 6%->1%.
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88 | //both issues require this failsafe...
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89 | //else values[i].updateWithNewValue(maxReliableDecrease, origEvaluation.getReliabilty());
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90 | else values[i].updateWithNewValue(newVal, origEvaluation.getReliabilty());
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91 |
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92 | }
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93 | normalize();
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94 |
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95 | }
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96 | public ValueDecrease utilityLoss(Bid bid) throws Exception{
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97 | ValueDecrease[] values = new ValueDecrease[issues.length];
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98 | for(int i=0;i<issues.length;i++){
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99 | Value value = bid.getValue(utilitySpace.getIssue(i).getNumber());
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100 | values[i] = issues[i].getExpectedDecrease(value);
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101 | }
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102 | double stdDev = 0;
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103 | for(int i=0;i<issues.length;i++){
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104 | stdDev += values[i].getDeviance();
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105 | }
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106 | double decrease=0;
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107 | for(int i=0;i<issues.length;i++){
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108 | decrease += values[i].getDecrease();
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109 | }
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110 | //the sum square of 1/reliability
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111 | double sumSQ=0;
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112 | for(int i=0;i<issues.length;i++){
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113 | double rel = values[i].getReliabilty();
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114 | rel = rel>0?rel:0.01;
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115 | sumSQ += (1/rel)*(1/rel);
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116 | }
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117 | //added postBG
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118 | sumSQ/=issues.length;
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119 | double rel = Math.sqrt(1/sumSQ);
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120 | return new ValueDecrease(decrease,rel,stdDev);
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121 | }
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122 |
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123 | public IssuesDecreases getIssue(int index){
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124 | if(index<issues.length && index>=0){
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125 | return issues[index];
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126 | }
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127 | return issues[0];
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128 |
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129 | }
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130 |
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131 | }
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