source: src/main/java/agents/ai2014/group11/OpponentUtilityModel.java@ 161

package agents.ai2014.group11;

import java.util.HashMap;
import java.util.Map.Entry;

import agents.ai2014.group11.OpponentBidHistory.BidModificationStrategy;
import genius.core.Bid;
import genius.core.Domain;
import genius.core.issue.ISSUETYPE;
import genius.core.issue.Issue;
import genius.core.issue.IssueDiscrete;
import genius.core.issue.Value;
import genius.core.issue.ValueDiscrete;

/**
 * A model of an opponent, which tries to estimate the utility for each bid.
 * 
 * NOTE: Only supports (explicitly) Discrete Issue values
 */
public class OpponentUtilityModel {

        private OpponentBidHistory allBids;
        private OpponentBidHistory acceptedBids;

        private HashMap<IssueDiscrete, Double> issueWeights;
        private HashMap<IssueDiscrete, HashMap<ValueDiscrete, Integer>> valueCounts;

        public OpponentUtilityModel(Domain d) throws InvalidDomainException {

                allBids = new OpponentBidHistory();
                acceptedBids = new OpponentBidHistory();

                issueWeights = new HashMap<IssueDiscrete, Double>();
                valueCounts = new HashMap<IssueDiscrete, HashMap<ValueDiscrete, Integer>>();

                double defaultIssueWeight = 1.0 / d.getIssues().size();

                for (Issue i : d.getIssues()) {
                        switch (i.getType()) {
                        case DISCRETE:
                                IssueDiscrete id = (IssueDiscrete) i;
                                issueWeights.put(id, defaultIssueWeight);

                                HashMap<ValueDiscrete, Integer> valueCount = new HashMap<ValueDiscrete, Integer>();
                                for (int j = 0; j < id.getNumberOfValues(); j++)
                                        valueCount.put(id.getValue(j), 0);

                                valueCounts.put(id, valueCount);
                                break;
                        default:
                                throw new InvalidDomainException(i.getType());
                        }
                }
        }

        /**
         * Try to determine what kind of strategy the opponent is using.
         * 
         * This is done by checking the difference in values between the 
         * opponent's current and the opponent's own last offer, 
         * and between the opponent's current and the overall last offer.
         * 
         * @return the strategy the opponent is most likely using.
         */
        public BidModificationStrategy getMostLikelyStrategy() {
                return allBids.getMostLikelyStrategy();
        }

        /**
         * Add a bid that is accepted by this opponent
         * 
         * @param acceptBid
         * @throws InvalidBidException
         */
        public void addAccept(Bid acceptBid) throws InvalidBidException {
                acceptedBids.add(acceptBid, acceptBid);
                updateCountersFromBid(acceptBid);
                updateCountersFromBid(acceptBid);
        }

        /**
         * Add a bid that is offered by this opponent
         * 
         * @param previousBid the bid that was done before
         * @param offerBid the bid that was offered
         * @throws InvalidBidException
         */
        public void addOffer(Bid previousBid, Bid offerBid)
                        throws InvalidBidException {
                allBids.add(previousBid, offerBid);
                updateCountersFromBid(offerBid);
        }

        /**
         * Update the internal parameters that count
         * how many times each value is offered by this opponent
         * 
         * @param b the new bid
         * @throws InvalidBidException
         */
        private void updateCountersFromBid(Bid b) throws InvalidBidException {
                for (Issue i : b.getIssues()) {
                        switch (i.getType()) {
                        case DISCRETE:
                                try {
                                        HashMap<ValueDiscrete, Integer> valueCount = valueCounts
                                                        .get((IssueDiscrete) i);
                                        ValueDiscrete v = (ValueDiscrete) b.getValue(i.getNumber());
                                        if (v == null) {
                                                throw new InvalidBidException(i.getType());
                                        } else {
                                                int currentCount = valueCount.get(v);
                                                currentCount++;
                                                valueCount.put(v, currentCount);
                                        }
                                } catch (Exception e) {
                                        e.printStackTrace();
                                }
                                break;
                        default:
                                throw new InvalidBidException(i.getType());
                        }
                }
                updateWeightsFromCounters();
        }

        /**
         * Update the model of value weights that is determined from the counters
         */
        private void updateWeightsFromCounters() {
                double totalAmountOfMeasurementsPerIssue = allBids.getSize();

                HashMap<IssueDiscrete, Double> issueVariances = new HashMap<IssueDiscrete, Double>();

                for (Entry<IssueDiscrete, HashMap<ValueDiscrete, Integer>> e : valueCounts
                                .entrySet()) {
                        HashMap<ValueDiscrete, Integer> valueCount = e.getValue();

                        double[] issueValueCounts = new double[valueCount.size()];
                        int counter = 0;
                        for (Entry<ValueDiscrete, Integer> entry : valueCount.entrySet()) {
                                // dividing by the total to ensure that the result and total sum
                                // < 1;
                                issueValueCounts[counter] = entry.getValue()
                                                / totalAmountOfMeasurementsPerIssue;
                                counter++;
                        }

                        issueVariances.put(e.getKey(),
                                        Statistics.getVariance(issueValueCounts));

                }

                double totalVariance = 0;
                for (Entry<IssueDiscrete, Double> e : issueVariances.entrySet()) {
                        totalVariance += e.getValue();
                }

                double amountOfRoomLeftToMakeVarancesSumUpToOne = 1 - totalVariance;
                double extraFreeVariancePointsPerIssue = amountOfRoomLeftToMakeVarancesSumUpToOne
                                / issueVariances.size();

                for (Entry<IssueDiscrete, Double> e : issueVariances.entrySet()) {
                        double weight = e.getValue() + extraFreeVariancePointsPerIssue;
                        issueWeights.put(e.getKey(), weight);
                }
        }

        /**
         * Determine the utility for a bid based on the modeled opponent
         * @param b the input bid
         * @return the utility for the input bid for this opponent model
         * @throws InvalidBidException
         */
        public double getUtility(Bid b) throws InvalidBidException {
                double utility = 0;
                for (Issue i : b.getIssues()) {
                        switch (i.getType()) {
                        case DISCRETE:
                                IssueDiscrete id = (IssueDiscrete) i;
                                utility += issueWeights.get(id) * getIssueEvaluation(id, b);
                                break;
                        default:
                                throw new InvalidBidException(i.getType());
                        }
                }

                return utility;
        }

        /**
         * Get the valuation of issue in a certain bid, based on the opponent model
         * @param i
         * @param b
         * @return
         * @throws InvalidBidException
         */
        private double getIssueEvaluation(IssueDiscrete i, Bid b)
                        throws InvalidBidException {
                try {
                        Value v = b.getValue(i.getNumber());
                        switch (v.getType()) {
                        case DISCRETE:
                                ValueDiscrete vd = (ValueDiscrete) v;
                                HashMap<ValueDiscrete, Integer> valueCount = valueCounts.get(i);
                                double max = getMaxValue(valueCount);
                                return valueCount.get(vd) / max;
                        default:
                                throw new InvalidBidException(v.getType());
                        }
                } catch (Exception e) {
                        if (e instanceof InvalidBidException)
                                throw (InvalidBidException) e;
                        else
                                e.printStackTrace();
                        return 0;
                }
        }

        /**
         * Get the maximum chosen value
         * @param counts
         * @return
         */
        private double getMaxValue(HashMap<ValueDiscrete, Integer> counts) {
                double max = 0;
                for (Entry<ValueDiscrete, Integer> e : counts.entrySet())
                        max = Math.max(max, e.getValue());
                return max;
        }

        class InvalidDomainException extends Exception {
                private static final long serialVersionUID = -6947113453964713361L;

        public InvalidDomainException(ISSUETYPE issueType) {
                        super("Domains with issues of type " + issueType
                                        + " are not supported!");
                }
        }

        class InvalidBidException extends Exception {
                private static final long serialVersionUID = -801096984481420822L;

                public InvalidBidException(ISSUETYPE issueType) {
                        super("Bids with issues of type " + issueType
                                        + " are not supported!");
                }
        }
        
        public String toString() {
                String result = "";
                for(Entry<IssueDiscrete, Double> e : issueWeights.entrySet()) {
                        IssueDiscrete issue = e.getKey();
                        result += issue + " (" + ((double) Math.round(e.getValue() * 1000) / 1000) + ") : ";
                        for(Entry<ValueDiscrete, Integer> e2 : valueCounts.get(issue).entrySet()) {
                                result += "<\"" + e2.getKey() + "\", " + e2.getValue() + "> ";
                        }
                        result += "\n";
                }
                
                return result;
        }
}